Anyone reading this knows that in recent weeks the UK has enjoyed particularly warm and dry weather considering the time of year. The most recent daytime temperatures across the country regularly being over 20° C; above seasonal norms.
Most people accept this unusual weather is related to global warming and while concerned, understandably we are all making the most of it.
Undoubtedly, people across the UK would like to see this trend continue, so we can enjoy the hot and dry summers more typically associated with the Mediterranean.
When it comes to climate change the focus is on warming and its impact, especially the annual rising temperatures. The Paris Climate Agreement focuses on limiting the rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. During 2024, in part due to specific weather pattern factors, the rise exceeded 1.5°C for the first time. Scientists expect 2025 to be one of the hottest years on record for air temperatures. This moves us ever closer to potential tipping points where we do not fully know what the effect will be in certain areas in the natural world; but the modelling is not encouraging.
Although warming is the issue, the real long-term risk for the UK and Northern Europe is that average temperatures might actually begin to cool.
Cooling may seem an unlikely discussion point when we are currently enjoying the early warm summer weather but the risk is real and growing.
Major tipping points will almost certainly affect the UK. The impact of rising temperatures on the melting Greenland icesheet and the Artic Sea ice risks thousands of gigatonnes of ice melting into the seas, impacting the temperature, salination and currents in the North Atlantic Ocean.
The UK climate is heavily influenced by the Gulf Stream which brings warm waters from the Caribbean to the shores of UK, Ireland and other parts of Northern Europe. It is a critical environmental factor which contributes to our climate.
In a scientific sense, the Gulf Stream is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation known as AMOC. This is a critical system of ocean currents that circulate water within the Atlantic Ocean, bringing warm water north and cold water south. In doing so, it moves massive amounts of heat, salt, and carbon dioxide around the globe as the figure below illustrates.
The data suggests the ice melt is accelerating and the North Atlantic is being impacted. There is so much concern that the UK Government recently invested £80m with a selection of leading climate science Centres of Excellence to develop monitoring systems, not a widely reported headline. The continued risk of ice melt also raises issues in relation to sea level rises.
As we get used to experiencing record summer temperatures, the question we have to ask is how we stabilise this.
A longer-term cooling climate would have serious commercial implications for some business sectors who are already committed to adaptation plans as the UK warms. Organisations who have considered the need for resilience have started to adapt their operational strategies, products and working environments.
Some business sectors, such as agriculture, have seen significant change as land-use models adapt to accommodate an overall warmer climate, for example:
- Southern England has extensive areas of vineyards with climatic conditions more akin to France, producing top quality sparkling wines;
- crops, such as maize, are now grown in farms in the north of England previously only seen in the south;
- berry production is growing and expected to expand further.
Alongside crop development, solar farms are also proving a useful component in the agricultural mix either to reduce on-site energy costs or as an additional income stream.
If we see a gradual cooling, then the investments made in these areas may need to be reversed which presents financial pressures on farmers with strategies needing to be altered; the same would be true of other sectors.
In simple terms, if the ice sheet melt continues unchecked and AMOC is disrupted or weakened sufficiently, then the outcome for the UK and Northern Europe are potentially very serious.
Recent monitoring suggests that this process is already be underway.
For many scientists, an AMOC slowdown or shutdown is considered one of the most dangerous climate tipping points which could substantially cool Northern Europe.
The impact on business would be huge and current investment trends and assets being developed and created to support a warming UK, could become stranded with falling values if Northern Europe cooled; commercially a far from ideal scenario.
Whilst this is an uncomfortable and inconvenient fact, if we can limit temperature rise then we can hopefully mitigate or reduce the impact on the AMOC system.
Politicians do not want to discuss this in public as it is a complex issue. However, businesses need to be able to plan for the future.
We need collective action to accelerate the UK’s move toward Net Zero, not slow this process down. Net Zero presents challenges for large power infrastructure but if collective action across SMEs and Mid-Caps to reduce carbon footprints within business and supply chains, which reduce operational costs, then we can hopefully slow the rate of warming.
While the UK business cannot solve this global issue alone, we can lead and encourage others to hopefully make future planning easier. Now is the time for action; not in 2030 or 2050.